The Matchup Projector, graded
How Close Did We Get?
Every week we check the Matchup Projector against what actually happened. For each graded out, the projection is rebuilt from only what the record held the day before, so there's no hindsight in it. In the 2026 season so far we've graded 2,992 outs, and our call was right 67.6% of the time. Always picking the bull would have been right 63.1%.
A "call" is buckoff when our buckoff likelihood is 50% or more, ride otherwise. Bulls win most outs, so "always the bull" is the bar to clear.
The Latest Week
Oct 12 – Oct 18, 2026The week's top bull score
Nasubi vs Marcelo De Souza Dias Junior: we projected a 41.71 bull score and a 96% buckoff likelihood. Result: buckoff, marked 46.50, 4.79 points above our projection.
107 graded outs: our call was right on 65 (61%); always the bull, 54 (50%). 56% of bull scores landed within a point of our projection.
| Bull | Rider | Our buckoff likelihood | Our call | Result | Projected | Bull score | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasubi | Marcelo De Souza Dias Junior | 96% | Right | Buckoff | 41.71 | 46.50 | +4.79 |
| Freedom Fighter | Ethan Winckler | 70% | Right | Buckoff | 44.30 | 45.10 | +0.80 |
| Freedom Fighter | Sage Steele Kimzey | 47% | Right | Ridden (91.90) | 44.31 | 44.55 | +0.24 |
| Iron Skillet | Thiago Salgado | 59% | Right | Buckoff | 43.48 | 44.50 | +1.02 |
| Iron Skillet | Damião Soares | 77% | Right | Buckoff | 43.52 | 44.40 | +0.88 |
| All Magic | Ednélio Rodrigues | 94% | Right | Buckoff | 41.54 | 44.35 | +2.81 |
| Up The Ante | Jess Lockwood | 75% | Right | Buckoff | 43.69 | 44.30 | +0.61 |
| MF Cupcake | Dener Barbosa | 43% | Missed | Buckoff | 43.61 | 44.30 | +0.69 |
| Wicked Solo | Brady Fielder | 25% | Right | Ridden (91.85) | 43.39 | 44.30 | +0.91 |
| Chili Mango | Qynn Andersen | 51% | Right | Buckoff | 42.94 | 44.25 | +1.31 |
| All Magic | Alex Marcilio | 91% | Right | Buckoff | 41.25 | 44.25 | +3.00 |
| Hay Train | Mauricio Gulla Moreira | 45% | Missed | Buckoff | 42.60 | 44.15 | +1.55 |
| Bullistic | Renan Almeida Alves | 55% | Right | Buckoff | 42.87 | 44.10 | +1.23 |
| Show Me The Money | Everton Natan da Silva | 29% | Missed | Buckoff | 43.17 | 44.05 | +0.88 |
| Ridin Dirty | Elijah Jennings | 99% | Right | Buckoff | 43.35 | 44.00 | +0.66 |
The week's 15 highest bull scores of 107 graded outs.
When We Said…
2026 seasonA good likelihood means what it says: of the bulls we rated 70% to buck off, about 70% should. Here's how ours held up.
| Our buckoff likelihood | Outs | We said, on average | Bulls bucked off |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 50% | 928 | 36% | 43% |
| 50–65% | 643 | 58% | 61% |
| 65–80% | 603 | 73% | 70% |
| 80% and up | 818 | 90% | 82% |
When we rated a bull 80% or more to buck off, we said 90% on average; bulls bucked off 82% of the time. The projector runs a little hot at the top end.
Overall, our likelihoods score 13.5% better than giving every out the league's buckoff rate, on the standard accuracy measure for probabilities (the Brier score).
Chute Side
2026 seasonPBR lists the side each bull is delivered from and the hand each rider rides with. Across the record, riders cover more often when the two match, so the projector now nudges the odds for it. We set that nudge using seasons before 2019 only and checked it on 2019 onward, which it never saw.
| Bull's delivery side vs rider's hand | Graded outs | Riders covered | We projected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Same side | 1,790 | 41.2% | 39.9% |
| Opposite sides | 1,202 | 30.4% | 33.1% |
Outs where either side isn't listed aren't in this table. The data shows the pattern; it doesn't say why.
Beat the Numbers
80%+ buckoff likelihood, coveredRiders who made the whistle on bulls we rated 80% or more to buck them off this season.
| Rider | Bull | Our buckoff likelihood | Ride score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Poulin | Little Tony | 99% | 85.25 | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Jean Carlos Teodoro | Corriente | 99% | 88.10 | Oct 4, 2026 |
| Jean Carlos Teodoro | Interstate Daydream | 99% | 88.90 | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Romario Leite | Total Air | 99% | 84.55 | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Brock Poulin | The Paint | 99% | 91.90 | Oct 10, 2026 |
| Austin Richardson | Ratchet Strap | 98% | 89.25 | Aug 23, 2026 |
| Eric Henrique Domingos | Hay Walker | 98% | 87.40 | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Ezekiel Mitchell | Radical Reel | 98% | 87.50 | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Marco Rizzo | El Patron | 98% | 89.75 | May 10, 2026 |
| Alex Cerqueira | Sisu | 97% | 79.70 | Jan 2, 2026 |
Week by Week
2026 season| Week | Graded | Calls right | Always the bull | Within 1 pt | Top bull score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12 – Oct 18, 2026 | 107 | 61% | 50% | 56% | Nasubi 46.50 (we said 41.71) |
| Oct 5 – Oct 11, 2026 | 112 | 69% | 63% | 69% | Wicked Intentions 47.40 (we said 43.38) |
| Sep 28 – Oct 4, 2026 | 127 | 71% | 61% | 65% | Fire Zone 47.40 (we said 44.60) |
| Sep 14 – Sep 20, 2026 | 112 | 67% | 61% | 63% | Fire Zone 46.20 (we said 44.59) |
| Sep 7 – Sep 13, 2026 | 100 | 71% | 59% | 59% | King Tut 46.70 (we said 44.27) |
| Aug 31 – Sep 6, 2026 | 121 | 69% | 61% | 78% | Wicked Intentions 46.25 (we said 43.29) |
| Aug 17 – Aug 23, 2026 | 131 | 68% | 60% | 68% | Wicked Intentions 46.25 (we said 43.13) |
| Aug 10 – Aug 16, 2026 | 125 | 72% | 64% | 57% | Buck Nasty 45.45 (we said 44.68) |
| Aug 3 – Aug 9, 2026 | 112 | 57% | 57% | 57% | Black Eyes 45.15 (we said 42.74) |
| Jul 27 – Aug 2, 2026 | 120 | 66% | 65% | 60% | Jeffery D 45.80 (we said 43.78) |
| Jul 6 – Jul 12, 2026 | 78 | 58% | 53% | 74% | Lights Out 45.30 (we said 44.02) |
| May 11 – May 17, 2026 | 166 | 74% | 69% | 72% | Ransom 46.75 (we said 45.86) |
| May 4 – May 10, 2026 | 152 | 70% | 72% | 62% | Ransom 47.15 (we said 45.69) |
| Apr 20 – Apr 26, 2026 | 58 | 72% | 62% | 66% | Buck Nasty 46.10 (we said 44.34) |
| Apr 13 – Apr 19, 2026 | 66 | 64% | 65% | 58% | Ransom 47.85 (we said 45.35) |
| Apr 6 – Apr 12, 2026 | 106 | 72% | 78% | 72% | Ransom 46.15 (we said 45.20) |
| Mar 23 – Mar 29, 2026 | 110 | 66% | 66% | 65% | Pegasus 46.00 (we said 44.84) |
| Mar 16 – Mar 22, 2026 | 73 | 68% | 71% | 68% | Cherry Shot 45.90 (we said 42.96) |
| Mar 9 – Mar 15, 2026 | 84 | 67% | 61% | 79% | Tchoupitoulas 45.00 (we said 42.80) |
| Mar 2 – Mar 8, 2026 | 66 | 80% | 73% | 70% | Pegasus 45.75 (we said 44.54) |
| Feb 23 – Mar 1, 2026 | 70 | 67% | 63% | 63% | Freedom Fighter 45.05 (we said 43.90) |
| Feb 16 – Feb 22, 2026 | 79 | 71% | 61% | 56% | Man Hater 45.80 (we said 44.98) |
| Feb 9 – Feb 15, 2026 | 83 | 65% | 64% | 72% | Man Hater 46.05 (we said 45.75) |
| Feb 2 – Feb 8, 2026 | 68 | 76% | 75% | 75% | Tigger 44.65 (we said 42.89) |
| Jan 26 – Feb 1, 2026 | 82 | 74% | 57% | 63% | Oyster Creek Brawler 45.35 (we said 42.06) |
| Jan 19 – Jan 25, 2026 | 84 | 69% | 64% | 61% | Red Demon 45.35 (we said 44.26) |
| Jan 12 – Jan 18, 2026 | 77 | 64% | 62% | 58% | Magic Touch 45.75 (we said 42.68) |
| Jan 5 – Jan 11, 2026 | 111 | 61% | 60% | 62% | Eyes On Me 45.30 (we said 41.96) |
| Dec 29 – Jan 4, 2026 | 62 | 63% | 55% | 81% | Eyes On Me 44.70 (we said 42.17) |
| Dec 15 – Dec 21, 2025 | 74 | 57% | 58% | 61% | Man Hater 44.90 (we said 45.74) |
| Dec 8 – Dec 14, 2025 | 76 | 64% | 55% | 54% | L.A. 44.00 (we said 43.38) |
Weeks with fewer than 10 gradable outs, such as off weeks between events, aren't listed.
Every Season, Back-Tested
The same grading, run on earlier seasons as if the projector had been there, using only what was known the day before each out. Seasons with fewer than 500 gradable outs (the early, sparse years of the record) aren't listed.
| Season | Graded | Calls right | Always the bull | Within 1 pt | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2,992 | 67.6% | 63.1% | 65% | 0.99 |
| 2025 | 3,690 | 64.0% | 59.9% | 65% | 1.06 |
| 2024 | 3,435 | 69.5% | 66.6% | 60% | 1.17 |
| 2023 | 3,018 | 71.0% | 69.8% | 61% | 1.11 |
| 2022 | 2,619 | 68.6% | 67.3% | 62% | 1.06 |
| 2021 | 2,014 | 70.6% | 69.7% | 67% | 0.98 |
| 2020 | 1,641 | 71.6% | 70.0% | 64% | 0.97 |
| 2019 | 2,055 | 70.2% | 67.5% | 66% | 0.95 |
| 2018 | 2,053 | 68.5% | 67.9% | 65% | 1.00 |
| 2017 | 2,061 | 69.7% | 67.7% | 63% | 1.05 |
| 2016 | 2,102 | 70.3% | 69.0% | 63% | 1.08 |
| 2015 | 1,942 | 69.4% | 68.1% | 63% | 1.13 |
| 2014 | 1,077 | 70.3% | 69.5% | 61% | 1.07 |
How it's graded: premier-series and PBR Teams outs where the bull had at least 5 and the rider at least 10 recorded outs beforehand. Each projection uses the projector's own math (buckoff likelihood from the bull's career record, odds-adjusted by the rider's ride rate against the league; then adjusted for chute side when the bull's delivery side and rider's hand are both listed; projected bull score from 70% recent form and 30% career average) with inputs rebuilt from the outs recorded before that day. The voided first out of a reride isn't graded. Through Oct 18, 2026. This grades our projector, not the riders or the bulls.